2008 ܾ ۱ ߳??(By ϵ庼 Ÿ)
Best outfield arms of 2008
by John WalshJanuary 22, 2009
츮 ̹ ij ܾ ϱⰡ ̴. ? ܾ߿ Ű ÷ ӿ ߿ϰ еǴ ϳ̴. Ȩ ÷Ʈ ڸ Ƴ 鿡 ҿԴ ÷ ϳ ̶ Ѵ. ٸ ϳ ̴. ƴϾ ˾ƺ ִ δ. ۽, װ ƴ϶ ϰڴ. ٷ ȿ ġȯ ʴ ٴ ̴. 츮 ܾ, ܾ ÷̿ ִ ij θ ϴ Ϲ Ƶ鿩 ̴.
ܾ ġ ϴ ߱ м Ų. װ η м̱... ӽ 츮 ϱ ʿ ϴ ܾ ۱ ͵鿡 ٰ ִ. 츮 ̰Ϳ κ ߸ ̴. , м ã Ʈ ִ ڷ麸 ܼ ʴٴ . ϵ庼 Ÿ ܾ ۱ ڷḦ Ʈ ϰ ִ.
The method
ܾ ۱ Ǵ ͵ 4 ° ϴ ̸ ⺻ ٲ ʾҴ. ܾ ġ ϰ ִ ڷᰡ ִ.
Using play-by-play data from Retrosheet, I consider five different situations when a throw from the outfield is important:
- Single with runner on first base (second base unoccupied). - 1翡 ڰ ִ Ȳ Ÿ
- Double with runner on first base. - 1翡 2Ÿ
- Single with runner on second base. - 2翡 Ÿ
- Fly out with runner on third base, fewer than two outs. - 2ƿ 3ڰ ִ ö
- Fly out with runner on second base, fewer than two outs (third base unoccupied). - 2ƿ 2ڰ ִ ö
̷ Ȳ鿡ٰ ( ڵ... Ÿ ) ߴ( "kill") Ǵ ڵ ־( "hold") ̴. Ȱ ȸ ܾ ϰ "kill" "hold" ̴. ̰ "kill+" "hold+" Īϰڴ. װ տ Ͽ kill hold س´ Ÿִ ̴.(100 ǥ OPS ̴.)
۳ ο Ҹ ߾. м 5 ǥ īװ 1 ʴ´ٴ ̴. κ ýƮ ö 1糪 2Ÿ ģ Ÿڰ ۷ ϴ Ƴ ϱ ̴. ȸ Ʈ ߴ ƴϹǷ ̴ հ ϱ ߴ.
ᱹ kill, hold, ýƮ Ȳ鿡 ġ ̴. װ ƿ ʴ ġ ֵ ־.
Park effects or "Manny's arm is above average? Really?"
ħ ũ Ʈ ܾ ۱ ų ˾Ƴ. ȿ ϱ ̴. ڸ ͼ Ϲ ٸ װͺ ÷ ϰ ȴ. ״ ª Ÿ ۱ ִ. ʹ ۿ ִ... ̰ Գ ڿԳ شǴ ʵ ū Ⱑ . ܾ ٿ尡 ұĢ Ƿ ΰܵ ܾ ۱ ִ( ܾ ΰܵ 忡 ϰ ÷ ϹǷ װ ȿ ʴ).
۱ ־ ũ Ʈ Ϳ Ϲ ũ Ʈ(ũ ϴ Ű?) ̴ ߴ. Ȩ ܾ ۱ ߴ. ũ Ʈ ణ ̰ Ÿ. ̰ 忡 3 ο ״. Ÿ 1992 2008 ߴ. ȵǴ ... ᱹ, Ǿ.
뷫 ü 200 ȸ "correction"̶ . 7 2̻ ְų ظ ־.
+------+-----+------------+ | Team | Pos | Correction | +------+-----+------------+ | BOS | LF | 3.9 | | BOS | CF | 2.6 | | TEX | RF | -2.1 | | COL | LF | -2.1 | | COL | CF | -2.1 | | KCA | LF | -2.7 | | KCA | RF | -2.8 | +------+-----+------------+
̰͵ 忡 ġ̴. ٸ ڸ 츮 ġ ų Ѵٴ .
, ʹ 轺 ͼ ߰ ִ. ʵ尡 ܾ Ϳ ʴ´. ػ罺 ڽ Ƽ ڳʿ й ް ִ Ҽ ̴.
ũ Ʈ ״.
츮 ˾ 2008 ְ ˾ƺ?
Right fielders
潺 ͽ ߿ ΰ̴. ״ ִ . ͼ պ 8 ̴ ý īŰ ̷. ״ 200 ȸ .(200 ȸ պ Runs200̶ Īϵ ϰڴ.)
Here's Pence's performance broken down by situation:
Hunter Pence , best RF arm of 2008.(Icon/SMI) |
Pence, Hunter HOU RF Situation | Opps | H K | Hexp Kexp S-1B | 53 | 32 2 | 31.4 0.7 S-2B | 40 | 17 6 | 13.7 2.9 D-1B | 24 | 13 2 | 14.6 1.1 OF-3B | 14 | 6 0 | 3.2 0.8 OF-2B | 37 | 24 1 | 22.0 1.0 Overall | 168 | 92 11 | 84.8 6.4 Opps - opportunities H - holds: runner did not take the extra base K - kills: number of baserunners thrown out Hexp - expected holds based on league-average arm Kexp - expected kills based on league-average arm
ι ° ٿ Ŀ ߴ ǥ д ̴.(H Ȧ, K ų). "S-2B" ϴ Ȳ" Ÿġ 2翡 ִ ڰ ٴ 츦 ϴ ⼭ Ȩ ۱ Ϲ ڰ ھ ø õϰ ̴. 40 ÷ 潺 6 ڸ װ... ̴ ͼ(2.9) ƿŰ Ǵ Ȳ Ͼ ̴. ״ 17 ڸ 3翡 ߰ ̴ܾ 14 ̴ ̴.ü 潺 պ 5 KILL, 8 HOLD Ͽ. ͵ κ Ȩ ÷Ʈ ̷鼭 "Big Game" 潺 ο ֱ ߴ.The following table shows the results for 25 right fielders in 2008 (the top 25 in throwing opportunities),ranked by Runs200.
+--------------------+---------+------+-------+-------+-------+---------+ | Name | Team | Opps | Kill+ | Hold+ | Runs | Runs200 | +--------------------+---------+------+-------+-------+-------+---------+ | Pence_Hunter | HOU | 168 | 172 | 112 | 7.7 | 9.2 | | Ludwick_Ryan | SLN | 129 | 126 | 112 | 5.6 | 8.7 | | Markakis_Nick | BAL | 198 | 136 | 112 | 7.7 | 7.8 | | Guerrero_Vladimir | ANA | 99 | 125 | 101 | 2.4 | 4.8 | | Church_Ryan | NYN | 110 | 92 | 105 | 2.5 | 4.5 | | Nady_Xavier | NYA/PIT | 122 | 183 | 102 | 2.7 | 4.4 | | Griffey_Ken | CIN | 109 | 151 | 102 | 2.0 | 3.7 | | Suzuki_Ichiro | SEA | 125 | 103 | 116 | 1.9 | 3.0 | | Francoeur_Jeff | ATL | 153 | 170 | 101 | 2.0 | 2.6 | | Gutierrez_Franklin | CLE | 115 | 104 | 108 | 0.9 | 1.6 | | Ethier_Andre | LAN | 109 | 134 | 92 | 0.8 | 1.5 | | Fukudome_Kosuke | CHN | 129 | 80 | 106 | 0.5 | 0.8 | | Dukes_Elijah | WAS | 96 | 135 | 84 | 0.2 | 0.4 | | Ordonez_Magglio | DET | 165 | 119 | 98 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Winn_Randy | SFN | 145 | 76 | 98 | -0.3 | -0.4 | | Hawpe_Brad | COL | 180 | 99 | 91 | -1.0 | -1.1 | | Hart_Corey | MIL | 150 | 67 | 100 | -1.5 | -2.0 | | Abreu_Bob | NYA | 171 | 104 | 99 | -3.5 | -4.1 | | Upton_Justin | ARI | 103 | 89 | 91 | -2.1 | -4.1 | | Hermida_Jeremy | FLO | 153 | 70 | 88 | -3.9 | -5.1 | | Drew_J.D. | BOS | 115 | 75 | 82 | -3.4 | -5.9 | | Kearns_Austin | WAS | 111 | 23 | 97 | -3.5 | -6.3 | | Dye_Jermaine | CHA | 157 | 66 | 88 | -5.8 | -7.4 | | Teahen_Mark | KCA | 103 | 24 | 79 | -4.3 | -8.3 | | Giles_Brian | SDN | 152 | 33 | 81 | -10.3 | -13.6 | +--------------------+---------+------+-------+-------+-------+---------+ Kill+ - rate of throwing out baserunners, compared to league average Hold+ - rate of holding baserunners Runs - runs saved above average Runs200 - Runs per 200 opportunities (roughly a full season)
մ ȫ ̾ 潺 ġ 2̶ Ͱ īŰ ǿ ִٴ . ƴϾ 2008 û . īŰ ö ÷̾μ ŵ쳪 ۱ ظ û ϰ ִ. ұϰ Ʈ ̹ Ϳ ڰ Ѵ. ȵ巹 ̵ Kill+ Hold+ ϸ Ǹ ִ.
̿ ؼ Ȳߴ... ̴ ִ ϰ ־ ̴. ̴ ־ ̻ ϰ Ǿ. 2002 ظ ϰ ų ״ Ͽ ־ 2005 +1 Ͽ ̴. ̾ Ͻ ҳ ּ ״ 50 ̷ -10.3 ־ٰ ִ.
Matt Kemp, best CF arm (probably best OF arm) of 2008. (Icon/SMI) |
Center fielders
The best center field arm in 2008, on a per-opportunity basis, belongs to 23-year-old Matt Kemp who patrols the middle garden at Chavez Ravine. Here's how Kemp did it:
Kemp, Matt LAN CF Situation | Opps | H K | Hexp Kexp S-1B | 39 | 25 1 | 27.1 0.4 S-2B | 29 | 9 0 | 5.7 1.4 D-1B | 9 | 4 1 | 2.1 0.5 OF-3B | 11 | 4 1 | 1.6 0.3 OF-2B | 13 | 10 1 | 8.5 0.2 Overall | 101 | 52 4 | 45.1 2.8
5 Ȳ hold kill Ҵ. 101 ȸ 5.7 ȹϿ ״ 68 ͼ ȸ 3.6 Ƴ ־. Ǹ ̴~!
Here are the other center fielders:
+-------------------+------+------+-------+-------+------+---------+ | Name | Team | Opps | Kill+ | Hold+ | Runs | Runs200 | +-------------------+------+------+-------+-------+------+---------+ | Kemp_Matt | LAN | 101 | 142 | 117 | 5.7 | 11.3 | | Upton_B.J. | TBA | 168 | 190 | 98 | 6.6 | 7.9 | | Victorino_Shane | PHI | 149 | 111 | 123 | 5.0 | 6.7 | | Suzuki_Ichiro | SEA | 93 | 147 | 113 | 2.9 | 6.2 | | Kotsay_Mark | ATL | 101 | 68 | 123 | 2.5 | 5.0 | | Ankiel_Rick | SLN | 108 | 94 | 126 | 2.3 | 4.3 | | Jones_Adam | BAL | 169 | 65 | 120 | 3.1 | 3.7 | | Taveras_Willy | COL | 140 | 98 | 107 | 2.6 | 3.7 | | Rowand_Aaron | SFN | 200 | 105 | 118 | 3.6 | 3.6 | | Cabrera_Melky | NYA | 120 | 118 | 108 | 1.8 | 3.0 | | Gomez_Carlos | MIN | 193 | 132 | 103 | 2.3 | 2.4 | | Ross_Cody | FLO | 102 | 150 | 94 | 1.1 | 2.2 | | Bourn_Michael | HOU | 140 | 170 | 94 | 1.3 | 1.9 | | Gathright_Joey | KCA | 100 | 114 | 96 | 0.7 | 1.4 | | Hamilton_Josh | TEX | 136 | 45 | 109 | 0.5 | 0.7 | | Beltran_Carlos | NYN | 189 | 107 | 106 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | McLouth_Nate | PIT | 196 | 72 | 104 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Patterson_Corey | CIN | 96 | 84 | 103 | -0.2 | -0.4 | | Cameron_Mike | MIL | 119 | 66 | 97 | -0.4 | -0.7 | | Granderson_Curtis | DET | 179 | 60 | 97 | -1.6 | -1.8 | | Wells_Vernon | TOR | 105 | 130 | 80 | -1.0 | -1.9 | | Young_Chris | ARI | 183 | 59 | 100 | -3.0 | -3.3 | | Hunter_Torii | ANA | 152 | 43 | 95 | -4.1 | -5.4 | | Milledge_Lastings | WAS | 152 | 22 | 98 | -4.4 | -5.8 | | Sizemore_Grady | CLE | 164 | 21 | 96 | -6.7 | -8.2 | +-------------------+------+------+-------+-------+------+---------+
κ ģϴ... 2007 Ҵ ư 丮 2008 Ͽ. ġδ ߰ ÷̿ Ұ (ͼ ̻̾) ũ ı ƲŸ ѵ .
ִ Ǵ Ʈ ī ־ 丮 ִ( 3Ⱓ -0.6, -3.6, -4.1). ٸ ̵ Ϻ ߱ ʴ ٸ ˰ ϰ ̴... ״ ϴ ó ҳ ִ. ذ ״ Ŀ .
Alfonso Soriano, best LF arm of 2008. (Icon/SMI) |
Left fielders
Alfonso Soriano has done it again. For the third straight season, Soriano takes top honors in throwing for a left fielder. As in past years, Soriano excelled in nailing baserunners.
Soriano, Alfonso CHN LF Situation | Opps | H K | Hexp Kexp S-1B | 30 | 28 0 | 25.1 0.3 S-2B | 19 | 7 1 | 6.0 1.4 D-1B | 14 | 6 2 | 8.5 0.5 OF-3B | 13 | 1 4 | 2.5 0.6 OF-2B | 17 | 14 0 | 15.5 0.4 Overall | 93 | 56 7 | 57.6 3.2
ҸƳ 2008 λ ־ ȸ ۿ ״ Ÿ. ״ ö̺ ý 3翡 ױ ϴ ڸ 4 Ƴ. װ ܾ ǰ ɼ Կ ұϰ ҸƳ hold ̴̻.
Here's how other left fielders around the leagues fared in controlling the running game (or not) in 2008:
+-----------------+---------+------+-------+-------+------+---------+ | Name | Team | Opps | Kill+ | Hold+ | Runs | Runs200 | +-----------------+---------+------+-------+-------+------+---------+ | Soriano_Alfonso | CHN | 93 | 218 | 101 | 3.7 | 8.0 | | Lewis_Fred | SFN | 118 | 212 | 101 | 4.4 | 7.5 | | Boggs_Brandon | TEX | 89 | 219 | 105 | 2.6 | 5.8 | | Jackson_Conor | ARI | 77 | 146 | 107 | 2.1 | 5.5 | | Ramirez_Manny | LAN/BOS | 122 | 158 | 108 | 2.5 | 4.1 | | Young_Delmon | MIN | 185 | 111 | 102 | 3.6 | 3.9 | | Burrell_Pat | PHI | 155 | 146 | 106 | 2.9 | 3.7 | | Francisco_Ben | CLE | 103 | 97 | 102 | 1.6 | 3.1 | | Quentin_Carlos | CHA | 139 | 69 | 108 | 2.0 | 2.9 | | Ibanez_Raul | SEA | 205 | 112 | 100 | 2.8 | 2.7 | | Holliday_Matt | COL | 195 | 120 | 101 | 2.5 | 2.6 | | Anderson_Garret | ANA | 85 | 194 | 85 | 0.9 | 2.1 | | Braun_Ryan | MIL | 155 | 113 | 98 | 0.9 | 1.2 | | Willingham_Josh | FLO | 110 | 94 | 104 | -0.1 | -0.2 | | Crawford_Carl | TBA | 100 | 53 | 109 | -1.5 | -3.0 | | Scott_Luke | BAL | 144 | 59 | 100 | -2.5 | -3.5 | | Cust_Jack | OAK | 76 | 137 | 86 | -1.4 | -3.7 | | Harris_Willie | WAS | 76 | 42 | 92 | -1.4 | -3.7 | | Damon_Johnny | NYA | 78 | 41 | 102 | -2.2 | -5.6 | | Dunn_Adam | ARI/CIN | 139 | 42 | 93 | -4.2 | -6.0 | | Headley_Chase | SDN | 90 | 29 | 97 | -2.7 | -6.0 | | Bay_Jason | BOS/PIT | 210 | 68 | 92 | -8.1 | -7.7 | | Lee_Carlos | HOU | 112 | 56 | 93 | -4.7 | -8.4 | | Pierre_Juan | LAN | 84 | 0 | 96 | -3.6 | -8.6 | | Gonzalez_Luis | FLO | 76 | 0 | 105 | -3.6 | -9.5 | +-----------------+---------+------+-------+-------+------+---------+
̽ 귣 ÷̸ . ٰ ̵鿡 ָ ̴. Ŵϴ ̹ ̻ ־... κ ͼ Ȱ ؼ ̴. Ŵϴ 1000 ȸ -3 Ȱ ߾.
Ŵ ü ̽ ̴ ۳ ־ ۱ɷ . -8 κ Ͽ 61 ȸ ¦ ̻̾ ָؾ ̴.
ľ ǿԴ 2008 ҽİ ҽ 2008 ־. װ ߰ ־ ʰ Ǿٴ ̰ ͼ 簨 ٴ . ̽ ߷ ϱ Ⱓ ɷ ÷̸ ؿԾ. kill+ 0̴.
Visual aids
ִ ǥ ִ. ϰ еǾ ִ.
hold kill ̻ ڸ ̴.. 츮 ű⼭ ķ 潺, 丮, ҸƳ ã ִ.
ģ ϴܿ (Ͻ, ǿ, Ƽ), ϴܿ hold װ Ű ũ ı̳ ع ִ.
ǥ ڸ 鿡 ǹ Ѵ. ̵ ڰ Ϸ ϴ ᱹ hold ̴. ̷ ̸ ڵ hold Ǹ ̴. ǥ hold kill ̿ Ŀٶ ̴. װ Ϲ ȿ ijġؼ Ѵٸ ڴ 縦 ̱ ̷ ִ ϴ.
Ʈ ݽ 70, 80 ͼμ ƿ غ ɰϰ ߴٰ Ѵ. װ پ ؾ ڰ ̸ ϰ Ϸ ÷̿ ̴.
Final word
ܾ ۱ Կ ؾ ִ. ϳ ظ װ͵ ȸ 鼭 Ÿ ִٴ ̴. ķ 潺 ܾ ۱ ϴ ÷̾ ı ´ٸ 2008 ְ ˰ ұϰ ƴ϶ ̴.( ڸ ϸ ҸƳ밡 ְ . ״ Ⱓ Ʈ Ǹߴ.)
ٸ ϳ ܾ ۱ ɷ ġ ǿ ġ ̴. 2008 5 ̻ ѳ Ұ 13 ̾. ϰ ġ 嵵 ߿ϴٴ . ϸ ó Ȳ 5 ġ 忡 2M ۿ Ѵٴ ̴.
̾ Ͻ ķ װ üѴٸ ̰ ̴. ʹ ܾ ۱ ߿伺 , ؼ ̴.
Well, that about wraps it up for this year's annual "Best arms" review. We will be updating the arms stat on the site in the near future, so you'll have access to all players.
ȳϼ... ˳
Ű ֵ ī Ʈ Ȥ ۼϴ ܾ Ʋ״ ڷḦ ߳
̷ο ־... ׳ ñ⸸ ϸ մϴ...
̶ ٻڽð... 赵 Ͻð Ȥ ð ſ մϴ^^ ̰ɷ 踦....
ǿ ٽ ѵ帮鼭 ̸ ڽϴ